Earlier in the week, we reported that there was a sudden and considerable drop in Ryan Lilja’s base salary for reasons then unknown. We speculated that the common act of guaranteeing a portion of his base salary (which enables it to be prorated like a signing bonus) is likely what transpired, with the future years reduced (and other accounting measures taken) to be in compliance with the 30% rule.
Today, Mike Chappell reported for the IndyStar that the restructuring is simply a clear cutting of his base salary with no guaranteed money, but that “[Lilja] could earn some of that back if he makes a full recovery and regains his starting spot“.
To me, it sounds like the differences in base salaries were simply made into an incentive bonus for those years contingent upon some level of performance in 2009. As he didn’t take part in a single snap in 2008 due to his injuries, the bonus would be a NLTBE bonus and not included in the team’s salary cap for 2009.
However, any performance at all would seem to trigger the bonus (if the bonus has the expected low threshold, such as starting 1 game). Normally, meeting this incentive would be accounted for by a charge against the 2010 cap so that the 2009 cap remains unaffected. However, being the last capped year, the rule is different. In the last capped year, if an NLTBE bonus is earned, that amount is IMMEDIATELY included in the cap for the current year, in which case his cap hit for 2009 immediately jumps to include the bonus, which would seem to be the original amount the base salary was reduced by. This would then make his 2009 cap hit identical to his original cap hit prior to restructuring. To that end, there’s really no ’savings’ for the team because at any moment, they could have to add the original amount back in, unless he goes on IR. Sure, the money is off the books now, but until you know he won’t trigger the incentive to be met, you always need to keep a placeholder on those funds just in case he does. This suggests to me that this move wasn’t a permanent cost-reducing move for 2009, but rather the team protecting itself in the event Lilja can’t play in 2009.
The question then shifts as to the reasons why each side would agree to the deal and specifically Lilja. If Lilja isn’t healthy yet and he gets put on IR for 2009, he’ll only earn the reduced base salary rather than the full amount.
Here’s the real benefit to both sides of this renegotiation.
For the Team: If Lilja can’t perform in 2009 and gets put on IR, he’ll assumingly not trigger the bonus and will only earn the reduced base salary for 2009. The team saves that much money over having to pay his original base salary.
For Lilja: Lilja makes some money because if he’d have been cut at the beginning of the league year, he wouldn’t have made a thing (who would sign him in this shape?). He may make less this year than originally planned, but it 1) keeps him on a payroll for more money this year (as opposed to no one signing him and making nothing), 2) it gives him the $1M roster bonus he’s due and 3) it gives him the chance to earn more in the future, should he eventually recover.
The real result of this renegotiation is that Lilja gets everything he would have originally earned should he be healthy. Should he not be healthy, Lilja ensures that he gets paid something and retains the possibility for a future payday with the Colts. The team meanwhile ensures that if he’s not healthy, they’re not on the books for $4M sitting on IR (which is what they’d have to do if they wanted to keep him past this year in case he does recover).
In other words, if Lilja recovers, he gets his normal contract. If he doesn’t, the team gets a much cheaper one-year placeholder on his contract.
The real problem here is that both sides are even talking about this. How much confidence that Lilja will return healthy does it give you when BOTH sides appear to be sufficiently concerned about it so that they specifically negotiate a contract for provisions on Lilja’s health?
If Lilja felt good about his recovery, why would he risk losing pay?
The flip side is that the team felt good enough about his long-term prognosis that thy went ahead and exercised a $1M roster bonus to make sure they retained his rights, as well as absorbed the possible IR hit should he not recover for 2009, rather than cutting him outright at the start of the year.
My interpretation with these events is that neither side knows what is going on with Lilja and both sides are hedging their bets for both results. That said, Lilja’s future with the Colts (and maybe the NFL) is up in the air at this point, with both the team and the player making maneuvers that bring into question their confidence in his recovery. This is surely not the news the team and fans were hoping for.