Justification for Drafting (almost) Any Position in the First Round (Offense)
The popular comment recently has been that the Colts have one glaring weakness (true) and that the weakness needs to be addressed with the first pick in the 2009 draft. I take issue with the second point.
My drafting philosophy has always tended to be taking the best player available, unless there’s just an overwhelming basis not to (such as having Manning as a QB). With that in mind, I don’t believe that a DT is a must pick in the first round of the 2009 draft and I don’t think that reaching for inferior talent at DT will automatically turn a 2nd or 3rd round player into a first round talent. In fact, I have made the comment that outside of QB, you could just about justify drafting any position in the first round in 2009. With that in mind, here we go:
Offensive Line
In years past, we’ve had the benefit of having players who can play a variety of positions along the offensive line. RG Jake Scott could (and did) fill in for Ryan Diem at RT. LG Lilja was the backup center. Recently, Charlie Johnson, who started his career with the Colts at RT has been a journeyman, playing LT, LG, and if memory serves, RG this year. But a cursory glance at the current and future roster suggests far less mobility. Lilja, Diem, Ugoh, and the rookies (Pollak, Richard, Justice) are all signed for at least two more years. But after that, the picture gets murky; Charlie Johnson is signed through 2009, Dan Federkeil is signed through this year, Mike Toudouze is on his final year of practice squad eligibility. Jeff Saturday is in the final year of his contract.
That leaves us with the possibility that in the next year, we will lose three of our lineman who have spent time on the active roster, with the fourth defecting a year later.
The result is that even though we drafted three centers in the 2008 draft, we could conceivably be down to a mere seven players in 2009 (2 OT’s, 3 OG’s, 1 C, 1 OT/OG) and six in 2010. Drafting an OT would help to provide needed depth behind Diem and Ugoh, and given the ability of that draftee, could potentially allow us to cut ties with Diem in 2010, should the team so choose. Drafting an interior lineman would also provide depth in 2009 and a potential starter in 2010. In 2009, it would allow us to not re-sign Saturday, move Lilja over to center, and keep Charlie Johnson at LG. When Johnson becomes a free agent after 2009, the draftee could replace him.
Tight End
This seems like it would be a hard position to argue for drafting in the first round, and it very well may be. Clark is the stallwort at TE. Backing him up are three first-year (Robinson spent 2007 on the PS and doesn’t technically gain a year of experience) players with a wide range of skills. All four are under contract for at least four years.
Aside from Clark however, the remaining three all have their talents and liabilities. Robinson has been praised by Polian for his tenacity in blocking, yet also has been described as needing to improve on his receiving abilities. Tamme is the opposite. Considered by some to be more of a WR than a true TE, Tamme’s blocking skills and physical abilities have been called into question, while his receiving skills have been praised. Lastly, Santi is an average jack-of-all-trades. In his few appearances thus far, he has appeared to be an average blocker and an average reciever.
Even with Gonzalez beginning to emerge as a bonafide WR, the Colts have continually gone to 2TE sets, flexing out Clark if needed. Often, this leaves the second TE (Robinson) in to block. However, Robinson has been sent out into patterns during many a passing play, with little success. Most of his catches come from being ignored by defenses as a non-threat out in the flats. Given the availablity of the right player, imagine what a legit blocker AND receiving threat could do in the offense. It’s natural to assume that the 2nd TE would ALWAYS be the lowest defensive priority, given that Harrison, Wayne, Clark, and Addai would almost always take the focus away.
The TE position right now is one similar to many others; it’s a situation where it’s certainly tolerable as it currently lies, but it’s also one that given the right player, could be improved tremendously.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Harrison.
That’s what this position’s drafting would revolve around. Given that most contracts increase each year in value and that players as they age (at some point) decrease in value, there comes a point when the productivity no longer matches the cost. Whether or not that is this year, I’m not going to say. What I will say is that Harrison’s 2009 salary cap hit continues to be gigantic and it’s possible that the team decides that in 2009, that point may have arrived. If that’s the case, then it leaves a vacuum at the 3WR spot as Gonzalez would move into the #2 position. For a passing offense, surrounding Manning with talent has been and shouldcontinue to be priority #1. If that’s the case, going WR might fit the bill if the team has decided that Harrison’s cost outweighs his contribution.
Running Back
In 2008, the Colts started the season carrying only 3 RB’s. I believe this is because of the lack of talent the Colts had in camp at that position, rather than a desire to only carry 3 backs. In 2009, Mike Hart will be coming off a serious knee injury, so his recovery will be an issue. Rhodes will be on a series of one year, minimum salary benefit contracts, so it’s unknown whether someone else will make him a bigger offer (or how long he wants to continue to play). Addai will be under contract for both 2009 and 2010, but it’s both apparent that he will be not re-signed after that and apparent that he needs to be platooned with another back. This (again) is a situation where there’s no pressing need, but should the right player come available and the team can draft him and keep him signed for 5 years, then it could be in their best interest to do so.